Six months ago, the CEO of the crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, predicted that the Bitcoin price could reach $50,000 in 2018. Today, he is in the Bitcoin news again but this time – surprisingly – for predicting that the Bitcoin price may fall and crash to a low of $2,000.
In less than six months, the CEO of BitMEX and a former Citigroup trader predicted that the Bitcoin downtrend could last another 18 months, mirroring the “nuclear bear market” that the crypto industry experienced back in 2014 and 2015.
The CEO made his statement while writing in Friday’s edition of the BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest, doubling down on the potential outlook. Even though many chart-watchers predict a bullish run by the end of this year, Hayes said that a better strategy right now is to mark the beginning of the bear market as the date at which the Bitcoin price eventually falls below its 200-day moving average (DMA).
If we see this metric, Bitcoin entered the bearish territory on March 12, when it was priced at $9,152 and so far has only seen a 37% decline since dropping below the 200 DMA.
“How low can we go?” he asked. “A 75% fall from $9,152 takes us close to $2,000. $2,000 to $3,000 is my new sweet spot but don’t tell Michelle Lee just yet,” Hayes wrote.
He also cited the decline in Bitcoin volatility as another factor that backs up his bearish outlook, taking a new tack compared to the Fundstrat founder Tom Lee who said that he was “pleasantly surprised” to see the decline in volatility given conditions in the broader equities markets.
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