One CME futures statistic came out with shocking predictions about the Bitcoin price, showing that it may be on the verge of seeing a red week. By red, we don’t mean Christmas – but a downtrend in which the cryptocurrency could fail to rise and go back to the ,000 region again.
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Even though the Bitcoin futures market is cash-settled which means that the coins backing the contracts do not exist on the blockchain, some say that the settlement of these derivatives has a profound effect on the spot market. According to one analyst, the CME statistic shows that there is a correlation between the expiry of CME monthly futures contract for Bitcoin and the price action.
In the latest cryptocurrencies news, the analysts shows data referring to the week ahead of all previous CME futures expiries. As the events show, there is a 70% chance that Bitcoin could trend lower based on previous data. The average loss is coming out to 2% in seven days. All of this implies that BTC could easily drop under $7,000 once again as the December 27 CME expiry nears.
The CME futures statistic could even spell more doom for Bitcoin in the coming weeks, the analyst noted in a tweet.
Updated CME data
-70% of weeks leading up to the CME close are negatives
-70% of days before the close are negatives
-65% of closing days are positives
-Neg day before = 81% Pos closing day
-Above average volatility leading up to and during the closing day pic.twitter.com/z0wcYiuEmC
— Jo (@JofDom) December 22, 2019
Besides all of this, it is not only the CME futures statistic that implies BTC could visit lower regions. According to another analyst named Cantering Clark, the price action and Bitcoin latest news are eerily reminiscent of what was seen in late October. This was when the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his pro-blockchain comments were the catalyst for BTC to jump 42% to $10,000.
Noting this similarity, the analyst concluded that just like in October and November, there is a good chance that BTC will see a “series of head-fakes” and a “slow drift back down to the lows” of $6,400 to $6,500 in the coming weeks.
The CME futures statistic and this sentiment echoed all over the news. Even the popular analyst Josh Rager joined and said that it is far too soon to be bullish after this week’s recovery, citing that BTC is stuck below a trend line formed after October and its infamous China pump. Rager added that unless it breaks this level and the $8,000 resistance, a reversal rally will end abruptly.
Feeling bullish after that $1k move? Zoom out and you'll see price is still very much in a downtrend
Needs to break/hold above $7950/$8k for any talk of a potential reversal
Break previous low and likely head under $6k where $5,300 area is a promising place for buyers pic.twitter.com/Xhyekb5Yq8
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) December 21, 2019
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