The Bitcoin recovery is underway after the US midterm elections reshaped Washington, and BTC is already back above $78,000.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly slipped to a six-week low near $75,600 as results came in, then climbed as high as $78,500 on Wednesday.
That is a quick rebound of almost 4% from the low, and it came as crypto rallied alongside US stock futures.
For Bitcoin investors, the most encouraging signal may be what happened underneath the price: spot ETF selling has slowed sharply.
We believe the bigger question now is whether this bounce can turn into the next leg higher.
What Changed After the US Midterm Elections?
Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress, creating a divided government for the rest of President Donald Trump’s term.
Markets initially read that as uncertainty for crypto legislation, and Bitcoin dipped with other risk assets overnight.
But the selling did not last.
Buyers stepped in quickly, and the initial reaction gave way to renewed demand within hours.
We believe that is an important distinction: a political headline can move price for a session, while Bitcoin’s long-term drivers stay exactly where they were.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply, deep institutional infrastructure and global adoption do not depend on which party holds the gavel.
On crypto policy, a divided Congress tends to slow sweeping changes rather than reverse progress.
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have backed clearer rules for digital assets, even while debating the details.
We believe clear, workable regulation remains a long-term tailwind for Bitcoin adoption, whichever party leads the committees.
The long-term debate has never been about one election; as we explored in Bitcoin’s $1 million challenge, it is about how much of global capital eventually moves onto the hardest asset.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Are Fading Fast
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded three straight sessions of net outflows totaling roughly $1.16 billion.
The detail that matters is the trend inside those numbers:
- October 30: about $643.2 million out
- November 2: about $398.6 million out
- November 3: about $115.6 million out
That is a drop of more than 80% in daily withdrawals in just a few sessions.
In other words, selling pressure is being absorbed, and quickly.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw about $95 million leave on Tuesday, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust shed $52.6 million.
Yet several funds were already taking in fresh capital on the same day.
Bitwise’s BITB attracted $21.9 million, Fidelity’s FBTC added $6.8 million and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT drew $3.3 million.
We see that as a healthy sign: even during a risk-off week, long-term allocators kept buying Bitcoin exposure through regulated products.
What Bob Loukas Is Watching
Veteran cycle trader Bob Loukas, followed by nearly 400,000 people on X, reacted to the election results with a notably upbeat take.
“Great for crypto at least. Not sarcasm,” Loukas wrote, quoting his own earlier post that the results were “absolutely off the charts.”
That view fits the cycle setup he flagged in late October.
On October 21, he wrote that Bitcoin “appears to be confirming the new cycle here,” adding that the upside target sat around 30 to 45 days out, with “room for a good advance.”
A week later, he noted that in any solid uptrend, three red weekly candles are typically “a short reset and a quick continuation of the trend resumes.”
We believe this week’s fast recovery from the six-week low is exactly the kind of response cycle traders want to see.
Why Stocks and Macro Still Matter for BTC
Bitcoin’s rebound came alongside a recovery in US stock futures, a reminder that broader risk appetite still shapes short-term moves.
As we noted when BTC neared $82,000 as Wall Street rebounded, Bitcoin tends to lead when sentiment improves across markets.
Investors should watch a few signals together:
- Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures
- US Treasury yields and the dollar
- Daily spot Bitcoin ETF flows
- Spot trading volume on the move toward $80,000
If ETF flows flip back to net inflows while equities stabilize, we believe the path of least resistance for Bitcoin points higher.
The market has also absorbed a heavy run of headlines, including the Binance hack, which hit an exchange rather than the Bitcoin network itself.
That resilience matters.
Can Bitcoin Reclaim $80,000 Next?
The $80,000 level is now the key near-term target.
From $78,000, a move back to that threshold needs an advance of roughly 2.6%.
Traders see the first resistance zone between $79,500 and $80,000. A clean break above it could open the way toward $82,000, especially if ETF outflows keep shrinking.
On the downside, buyers already showed their hand near $75,600, which now acts as the line bulls have defended.
For us, the key takeaway is simple: Bitcoin absorbed an election shock and more than $1 billion of ETF selling, and still bounced back within hours.
We see dips like this as opportunities for long-term holders, not reasons to leave.
The coming days will show how fast momentum builds.
And if Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 while ETF flows turn positive, investors may soon look past the election noise and toward the next phase of this bull cycle.
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