The Bitcoin 4 year cycle is back at the centre of the debate, and one of the market’s best-known cycle analysts thinks a fresh cycle may already be underway.
Bitcoin is trading near $80,470, according to CoinGecko, about 36% below its all-time high of roughly $126,080 set on October 6, 2025.
That pullback has many investors asking whether the classic halving-driven rhythm still holds, or whether Wall Street money has changed the game.
We believe the answer could be a bit of both, and that is what makes this setup so interesting.
What Is the Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle?
The four-year cycle is built around Bitcoin’s halving, which cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half roughly every 210,000 blocks.
Halvings took place in November 2012, July 2016, May 2020 and April 2024. The most recent one reduced the subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block.
Historically, each halving has been followed by a major bull market, a blow-off peak and then a deep correction.
Each halving also tightens the flow of new coins reaching the market, which has historically squeezed supply just as demand starts to build.
The timing has been remarkably consistent. The December 2017 peak came about 17 months after the 2016 halving, and the November 2021 peak arrived about 18 months after the 2020 halving.
The October 2025 all-time high landed roughly 17.5 months after the April 2024 halving, which fits that historical pattern closely.
Why Is This Cycle Different?
The biggest difference so far is the depth of the decline.
After the 2017 peak, Bitcoin fell more than 80% to around $3,200 in December 2018. After the 2021 peak, it dropped about 77% to around $15,500 in November 2022.
This time, the drawdown from the October 2025 high is about 36% at current prices.
We think that resilience reflects a much stronger buyer base. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in about $56.5 billion in cumulative net inflows since January 2024, according to Farside Investors data.
As our latest Bitcoin ETF news analysis showed, even recent outflows have been slowing quickly.
Corporate treasuries add more support. Strategy alone now holds 849,327 BTC after another purchase last week, according to its November 2 filing.
What Is Bob Loukas Saying About the Cycle?
Bob Loukas, a widely followed trader known for his cycle-timing analysis, has been tracking Bitcoin’s shorter cycles within the bigger four-year structure.
On October 21, he posted that Bitcoin “appears to be confirming the new cycle here.”
He added that “the upside target is around 30 to 45 days, room for a good advance,” while noting it is not a guarantee of a major upside move.
On November 4, after the midterm election results, Loukas called it “a good move” for Bitcoin, while noting it would need a big push to break out of the current weekly cycle decline.
Cycle analysts like Loukas focus on recurring lows that tend to appear at fairly regular intervals. When a new low is confirmed, it often marks the start of a fresh advance.
We like that balanced framing. A confirmed new cycle low gives traders a clear anchor point, and the upside window he described is still open.
Where Does the Next Bitcoin Halving Fit In?
The next halving is scheduled at block 1,050,000.
With the chain at height 974,594 according to mempool.space, that is about 75,400 blocks away. At the 10-minute target pace, it points to roughly April 2028.
If history is any guide, the period leading into a halving has often been a strong accumulation phase. Investors tend to position early for the next supply cut.
Miners also seem to be preparing. As we detailed in our report on the Bitcoin hashrate above 1,000 EH/s, network computing power has climbed about 17% since early August.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Breaking or Evolving?
We believe the cycle is evolving rather than disappearing.
The halving still matters because it cuts new supply in half. Today, miners produce only about 450 BTC per day, compared with about 900 BTC before April 2024.
What has changed is who is buying. ETFs, public companies and registered advisers create steadier demand that can soften the deep crashes of earlier cycles.
Global liquidity also plays a growing role. We explored that link in our look at how bank liquidity could fuel a Bitcoin rally.
If shallower drawdowns become the new norm, the four-year cycle may turn into a smoother, longer uptrend punctuated by healthier resets.
What Should Investors Watch Next?
- The weekly cycle: Loukas flagged an intermediate weekly decline on November 4, so a strong weekly close would be an early sign that buyers are back in control.
- The $81,000 zone: Bitcoin briefly topped it this week, and a sustained hold would strengthen the new-cycle case.
- ETF flows: a return to steady inflows would add fuel to any cycle advance.
- Halving countdown: each block mined brings the 2028 supply cut closer.
We believe the combination of a shallower correction, rising hashrate and deep institutional demand makes this one of the most constructive mid-cycle setups Bitcoin has seen.
The coming days will reveal whether Bitcoin’s new cycle gathers momentum, and whether the four-year rhythm is about to deliver another powerful advance.
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