Bitcoin has spent November sliding toward $74,000, yet one of the slowest-moving gauges in the market has not budged in the wrong direction. The Bitcoin 200 week moving average, the mean of the last 200 weekly closing prices, finished the week of Nov. 8 at $67,754, a new high for the line and 23.1% above where it stood a year earlier.
That figure comes from a DCForecasts calculation on Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily candles, using Sunday weekly closes (UTC). Measured that way, the average has risen in every one of the 390 weeks since its first available reading on May 19, 2019. It never posted a single weekly decline through the 2020 pandemic crash, the 2022 bear market or this year’s pullback.
Where Bitcoin Stands Against the Line
Bitcoin’s weekly close on Nov. 8 was $74,754.08, which put it 10.3% above the 200 week average. The daily close on Nov. 11 was $73,927.63, a cushion of about 9.1%. That is thinner than the 62.6% peak gap of 2026, but still positive. For comparison, Bitcoin traded well above the line throughout 2024 and 2025, when its smallest weekly gap was 37%.
The shorter-term picture is tighter. As we noted in our look at the 200 day moving average and the Mayer Multiple, the faster line has been testing support. The 200 week average sits underneath that as a much deeper floor. Because it smooths almost four years of prices, it changes direction only after a very long stretch of weakness.
A Floor That Keeps Rising
The level of the line matters as much as the gap. At the first weekly close of each November, the average has stepped higher every year in the data: $4,775 in 2019, $7,009 in 2020, $17,098 in 2021, $23,878 in 2022, $28,557 in 2023, $40,584 in 2024, $54,743 in 2025 and $67,465 in 2026.
Two years ago, the line was at $40,796. Since then it has gained 66%, which means the long-run cost basis of anyone who bought steadily for the last four years keeps moving up. In plain terms, a buyer who added the same amount every week since late 2022 would still be roughly in profit after November’s drop.
The math behind the trend also looks favorable for the months ahead. Each week, the newest close replaces the oldest one in the 200 week window, so the average rises as long as the new close beats the price it pushes out. The closes due to roll off over the next 26 weeks are early-2023 prices between $20,880 and $30,614. Over the next 52 weeks, the highest close leaving the window is $43,950, from Jan. 7, 2024. Bitcoin would need to fall below those old prices for the average to start dropping, roughly 40% or more beneath where it trades today.
How Rare Are Closes Below It?
Out of 391 weekly closes with a 200 week reading, only 50 have ended below the line. One came in March 2020, during the pandemic crash, when Bitcoin closed 3.0% under it on March 15. Forty-six came in the 2022 to 2023 bear market, between June 19, 2022 and Oct. 15, 2023, with the deepest gap at 32.3% below the average on Nov. 20, 2022.
The other three came this year. Bitcoin closed 4.8% below the line on June 28, 0.1% below on Aug. 2 and 1.8% below on Aug. 16. Each time, it reclaimed the average the following week. The lowest daily close of 2026 was $58,523.93 on June 30. From there, Bitcoin climbed to $86,594.94 by Sept. 21, a 48% rebound, rather than sliding into the long sub-average stretch that marked 2022.
That fits a pattern we highlighted when we found that Bitcoin’s bear market drawdowns have shrunk from 84% to 53% across three cycles. Every dip below the 200 week line this year lasted a single week and none went deeper than 4.8%, which suggests buyers are stepping in faster than in 2022.
Who Is Defending the Long-Term Line?
A bigger base of patient holders helps explain why the line has become harder to break. Corporate treasuries and spot ETFs now hold Bitcoin with multi-year horizons. Strategy alone holds 850,364 BTC at an average cost of $75,456, well above where the long-term line sits today.
Lower volatility points the same way. Bitcoin has recently been swinging just 1.7 times as much as the S&P 500, the narrowest gap in a year. A calmer asset tends to drift around its long-term trend instead of overshooting it by hundreds of percent, as it did in 2021 when the gap peaked at 518.6%.
What the Indicator Can and Cannot Tell You
A moving average describes the past, not the future. It simply smooths an asset’s price over a set period to filter out short-term noise. The 200 week version is popular with long-term Bitcoin investors because it has historically sat close to cycle lows. It is not a guarantee of support, and price can and does close beneath it, as it did in 50 weeks of this data set.
Still, the evidence leans constructive. The line is at a record $67,754, it has not fallen in 390 straight weeks, and the prices due to roll out of it over the next year are far below today’s market. Bitcoin’s current price remains above that rising floor.
For long-term holders, that is the key point from this indicator. November’s slide has trimmed the gap, but the base under Bitcoin is higher than ever and still climbing by about $290 a week. We think that steady rise is one of the clearest signs of how far Bitcoin’s long-run value has come.
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